Probability

Expected value and compound chance

Weather, insurance, games at the school fete. Expected value = sum of (value × probability).

CAPS

Grade 12 · Mathematical Literacy · Probability

Mathematical Literacy uses a context, not a bare sum.

  • Two papers

    Paper 1 uses familiar contexts: pay slips, till slips, maps you have seen, and data in a table. Paper 2 uses less familiar contexts and expects you to decide which method fits. Both papers are 150 marks.

  • What to show

    Write the value with its unit or its rand sign. Say whether you multiply or divide, and round only at the end, in the way the question asked (nearest rand, one decimal place, a whole number of tiles).

  • The relation

    E(X) = Σ (value × probability). Expected value

  • How a marker reads it

    Expected value is a long-run average. It can be a number nobody actually receives.

A correct number with the wrong unit, or a VAT amount treated as the full price, loses the mark the context was testing.

Diagram

Expected value and compound chance

Worked example

A raffle: P(win R50) = 0.1, otherwise R0. Expected winnings?

Before any working — hunt first

Given

Numbers and units already in the sentence: R50 · 0.1 · R0. Copy each one into a column. A name without a number is not given.

Missing

After you copy the given, the letter that still has no number is missing. The paper is pointing at: Expected winnings. Circle that word — that is the missing variable.

Find

We are required to find: Expected winnings. Write that as a symbol on the left, with a question mark, before you touch a formula.

Calculate

Write E(X) = Σ (value × probability) with empty letters. Cross out every letter that already has a number. Calculate the letter that is still standing — that gives Expected winnings.

Simplified approach

0.1×50+0.9×0=R5.

Culture note

A school raffle at the winter market in Bela-Bela is expected value.

Formulas

E(X)=Σ (value × probability)

Expected value

Exam tricks you must know

These are the moves markers look for — not shortcuts that skip the method, but the habits that earn the method mark.

  • If the price already includes VAT, divide by 1.15 — do not subtract 15%

    How:Total = price × 1.15 when VAT is still to be added. When the till already shows VAT, price excluding = total1.15. Subtracting 15% of the total is a different number and loses the mark.

    When to use it:Till slips, VAT, and SARS-style tax questions.

  • Fencing is perimeter. Grass, paint and tiles are area. Tanks are volume.

    How:Underline the object: wire, border, fence → add the sides. Floor, wall, field, paint → multiply length by width, then divide by coverage and round tins up. Water in a tank → m³ then × 1 000 for litres.

    When to use it:Measurement papers: school fields, paint, Jojo tanks.

  • Always substitute the usage into both tariff options — the cheaper one can swap after break-even

    How:Write cost A and cost B as two lines. Set them equal if they ask where the deals match. Circle the smaller total at the given usage. A graph with two lines makes the swap obvious.

    When to use it:Cellphone contracts, prepaid electricity, and cake-sale break-even.

Step 1 / 5

List the outcomes

Win R50 with probability 0.1; win R0 with 0.9.

Diagram
E=0.1×50+0.9×0=5

Why this step: We only do one job per line so a marker can follow the marks — and so you can find a slip without starting over.

More worked examples

Board walkthroughs on this topic. Open one, copy the working, then try the next.

Example 1 / 20

A game pays R100 with probability 15, and nothing otherwise. Find the expected payout.

4. Step-by-step working

  1. 01

    Write the formula

    E=100×(1/5)+0×(1 − 1/5).

    100×15
  2. 02

    Multiply

    100×1=100.

    1005
  3. 03

    Divide

    E=1005=R20.

    R20

How we got there

Read this like a teacher at the board. We go slowly, name every number, and say why we take each step.

Explain in another language · 11

1. What is the question asking?

Read the question twice. Circle the unknown. Underline every number and unit. The paper is asking: A game pays R100 with probability 15, and nothing otherwise. Find the expected payout.

Before any working — hunt first

Given

Numbers and units already in the sentence: R100 with · 1/ · 5. Copy each one into a column. A name without a number is not given.

Missing

After you copy the given, the letter that still has no number is missing. The paper is pointing at: the expected payout. Circle that word — that is the missing variable.

Find

We are required to find: the expected payout. Write that as a symbol on the left, with a question mark, before you touch a formula.

Calculate

Write 100 × 15 with empty letters. Cross out every letter that already has a number. Calculate the letter that is still standing — that gives the expected payout.

In other words — as if you have never seen this before

If you have never seen this before: Expected value is each payout multiplied by its probability, then added. A zero payout adds nothing. We will name a method in words, write the formula with no numbers, then substitute one line at a time.

2. What do we already know?

Prize R100. Probability 15. The other outcome pays R0.

3. Which method — and why this one?

Expected value is each payout multiplied by its probability, then added. A zero payout adds nothing.

4. Step-by-step working

  1. 01 / 06

    Write the formula

    E=100×(1/5)+0×(1 − 1/5).

    100×15

    Why this step: We only do one job per line so a marker can follow the marks — and so you can find a slip without starting over.

  2. 02 / 06

    Multiply

    100×1=100.

    1005

    Why this step: We only do one job per line so a marker can follow the marks — and so you can find a slip without starting over.

  3. 03 / 06

    Divide

    E=1005=R20.

    R20

    Why this step: We only do one job per line so a marker can follow the marks — and so you can find a slip without starting over.

  4. 04 / 06

    Step G — Sense-check the size

    Ask: is this the kind of number a Grade 10–12 paper would want? A speed of 3 000 ms for a learner walking, or a probability bigger than 1, means a unit or algebra slip. Estimate first: round the numbers and do the sum in your head.

    Why this step: Markers write ‘unrealistic’ in the margin when the method is right but the size is wild. A 10-second head check often finds a missing 10² or a unit that never changed.

  5. 05 / 06

    Step F — Box the answer with its unit

    R20

    Why this step: A number without a unit is half a mark on a Physics paper, and a marker can miss a Maths answer that is buried in working.

  6. 06 / 06

    Step H — What the marker is looking for

    On an NSC memo you usually earn: (1) a method mark for naming the right formula or idea in words, (2) an accuracy mark for substituting the given numbers with units, (3) an accuracy mark for the boxed answer with its unit. Write those three lines even if you are unsure of the arithmetic — blank pages score zero.

    Why this step: First-timers chase the final number and leave the method blank. The memo still pays out for the idea and the substitution even when the last line is wrong.

5. The answer

R20

Copy onto your answer sheet — in this order

Formula: 100×15

Answer: R20

6. Check it like a marker

The prize itself is not the expected value unless the probability is 1. Most plays pay nothing.

7. A trap first-timers fall into

First-timers often grab the first formula they remember, mix units (cm with m, minutes with seconds), or drop a minus sign. Write the formula in words first: “this equals that, because…”

Ntsako · fx-991ZA PLUS. Tap to calculate.