Probability

Tree diagrams and relative frequency

Two events in a row. Multiply along a branch. Add mutually exclusive branches.

CAPS

Grade 11 · Mathematical Literacy · Probability

Mathematical Literacy uses a context, not a bare sum.

  • Two papers

    Paper 1 uses familiar contexts: pay slips, till slips, maps you have seen, and data in a table. Paper 2 uses less familiar contexts and expects you to decide which method fits. Both papers are 150 marks.

  • What to show

    Write the value with its unit or its rand sign. Say whether you multiply or divide, and round only at the end, in the way the question asked (nearest rand, one decimal place, a whole number of tiles).

  • The relation

    P(A then B) = P(A) × P(B given A). Compound events

  • How a marker reads it

    Multiply along a path. Add different paths that count as success.

A correct number with the wrong unit, or a VAT amount treated as the full price, loses the mark the context was testing.

λA

Diagram

Tree diagrams and relative frequency

Worked example

A fair coin twice. P(two heads)?

Before any working — hunt first

Given

Numbers and units already in the sentence: no numbers yet — only a name, a diagram, or a worded unknown. Copy each one into a column. A name without a number is not given.

Missing

After you copy the given, the letter that still has no number is missing. The paper is pointing at: P(two heads). Circle that word — that is the missing variable.

Find

We are required to find: P(two heads). Write that as a symbol on the left, with a question mark, before you touch a formula.

Calculate

Write P(A then B) = P(A) × P(B given A) with empty letters. Cross out every letter that already has a number. Calculate the letter that is still standing — that gives P(two heads).

Simplified approach

½×½=¼.

Culture note

Tossing a 5-rand coin in the corridor to decide who fetches water is this tree.

Formulas

P(A then B)=P(A)×P(B given A)

Compound events

Exam tricks you must know

These are the moves markers look for — not shortcuts that skip the method, but the habits that earn the method mark.

  • If the price already includes VAT, divide by 1.15 — do not subtract 15%

    How:Total = price × 1.15 when VAT is still to be added. When the till already shows VAT, price excluding = total1.15. Subtracting 15% of the total is a different number and loses the mark.

    When to use it:Till slips, VAT, and SARS-style tax questions.

  • Fencing is perimeter. Grass, paint and tiles are area. Tanks are volume.

    How:Underline the object: wire, border, fence → add the sides. Floor, wall, field, paint → multiply length by width, then divide by coverage and round tins up. Water in a tank → m³ then × 1 000 for litres.

    When to use it:Measurement papers: school fields, paint, Jojo tanks.

  • Always substitute the usage into both tariff options — the cheaper one can swap after break-even

    How:Write cost A and cost B as two lines. Set them equal if they ask where the deals match. Circle the smaller total at the given usage. A graph with two lines makes the swap obvious.

    When to use it:Cellphone contracts, prepaid electricity, and cake-sale break-even.

Step 1 / 5

Draw two branches each time

First toss H or T, each ½. Second toss the same.

½×½=¼

Why this step: We only do one job per line so a marker can follow the marks — and so you can find a slip without starting over.

4. Step-by-step working

  1. 01

    Draw two branches each time

    First toss H or T, each ½. Second toss the same.

    ½×½=¼
  2. 02

    Multiply along HH

    Only the HH branch. P = 14.

More worked examples

Board walkthroughs on this topic. Open one, copy the working, then try the next.

Example 1 / 20

A bag has 4 red beads and 1 blue bead. Two beads are drawn without replacement. Find the probability that both are red.

4. Step-by-step working

  1. 01

    Write the formula

    First draw: 4 red out of 5 beads.

    45
  2. 02

    Subtract

    One red bead is gone. 4 − 1 = 3 red left, and 5 − 1 = 4 beads left.

    34
  3. 03

    Multiply

    Numerators: 4 × 3 = 12. Denominators: 5 × 4 = 20.

    (4 × 3)(5 × 4)=1220
  4. 04

    Divide

    12 and 20 divide by 4. 124=3 and 204=5, so the probability is 35.

    1220=35

How we got there

Read this like a teacher at the board. We go slowly, name every number, and say why we take each step.

Explain in another language · 11

1. What is the question asking?

Read the question twice. Circle the unknown. Underline every number and unit. The paper is asking: A bag has 4 red beads and 1 blue bead. Two beads are drawn without replacement. Find the probability that both are red.

Before any working — hunt first

Given

Numbers and units already in the sentence: 4 red · 1 blue. Copy each one into a column. A name without a number is not given.

Missing

After you copy the given, the letter that still has no number is missing. The paper is pointing at: the probability that both are red. Circle that word — that is the missing variable.

Find

We are required to find: the probability that both are red. Write that as a symbol on the left, with a question mark, before you touch a formula.

Calculate

Write 45 with empty letters. Cross out every letter that already has a number. Calculate the letter that is still standing — that gives the probability that both are red.

In other words — as if you have never seen this before

If you have never seen this before: The first red changes the bag. Multiply the two fractions. Do not use 45 × 45. We will name a method in words, write the formula with no numbers, then substitute one line at a time.

2. What do we already know?

4 red, 1 blue, 5 beads. No replacement. Order of drawing is not asked.

3. Which method — and why this one?

The first red changes the bag. Multiply the two fractions. Do not use 45 × 45.

4. Step-by-step working

  1. 01 / 07

    Write the formula

    First draw: 4 red out of 5 beads.

    45

    Why this step: We only do one job per line so a marker can follow the marks — and so you can find a slip without starting over.

  2. 02 / 07

    Subtract

    One red bead is gone. 4 − 1 = 3 red left, and 5 − 1 = 4 beads left.

    34

    Why this step: We only do one job per line so a marker can follow the marks — and so you can find a slip without starting over.

  3. 03 / 07

    Multiply

    Numerators: 4 × 3 = 12. Denominators: 5 × 4 = 20.

    (4 × 3)(5 × 4)=1220

    Why this step: We only do one job per line so a marker can follow the marks — and so you can find a slip without starting over.

  4. 04 / 07

    Divide

    12 and 20 divide by 4. 124=3 and 204=5, so the probability is 35.

    1220=35

    Why this step: We only do one job per line so a marker can follow the marks — and so you can find a slip without starting over.

  5. 05 / 07

    Step G — Sense-check the size

    Ask: is this the kind of number a Grade 10–12 paper would want? A speed of 3 000 ms for a learner walking, or a probability bigger than 1, means a unit or algebra slip. Estimate first: round the numbers and do the sum in your head.

    Why this step: Markers write ‘unrealistic’ in the margin when the method is right but the size is wild. A 10-second head check often finds a missing 10² or a unit that never changed.

  6. 06 / 07

    Step F — Box the answer with its unit

    35

    Why this step: A number without a unit is half a mark on a Physics paper, and a marker can miss a Maths answer that is buried in working.

  7. 07 / 07

    Step H — What the marker is looking for

    On an NSC memo you usually earn: (1) a method mark for naming the right formula or idea in words, (2) an accuracy mark for substituting the given numbers with units, (3) an accuracy mark for the boxed answer with its unit. Write those three lines even if you are unsure of the arithmetic — blank pages score zero.

    Why this step: First-timers chase the final number and leave the method blank. The memo still pays out for the idea and the substitution even when the last line is wrong.

5. The answer

35

Copy onto your answer sheet — in this order

Formula: 45

Answer: 35

6. Check it like a marker

With replacement the second fraction would stay 45 and the answer would be 1625. The question says without replacement.

7. A trap first-timers fall into

First-timers often grab the first formula they remember, mix units (cm with m, minutes with seconds), or drop a minus sign. Write the formula in words first: “this equals that, because…”

Ntsako · fx-991ZA PLUS. Tap to calculate.